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Technical Note

Probability of failure determination for tunnels in rock by using Monte Carlo simulation  

Erion Bukaçi*1, Thoma Korini2, Erion Periku3,4, Skënder Allkja5, Paulin Sheperi5

1Faculty of Civil Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania.
2Faculty of Geology and Mining,Polytechnic University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania.
3Department of Civil Engineering, Epoka University, Tirana, Albania
4Fan River Hydro Power Project, Aydiner Construction Co., Lezhe, Albania
5Fan River Hydro Power Project, Altea & Geostudio 2000, Lezhe, Albania

Keywords

Abstract


Reliability,


Probability of failure,

 

Factor of safety,


Monte Carlo simulation,


Tunnel,


Convergence-confinement

 

Convergence - confinement method can be used to analyze rock support systems in interaction with rock mass in order to select the appropriate supports system for tunnels in rock. This method enables calculation of the charge applied to the support system and the factor of safety for the tunnel supports. The factor of safety calculated from traditional deterministic analysis methods cannot fully represent tunnel stability. There are many uncertainties in parameters used to calculate the factor of safety, and these uncertainties are not integrated in a deterministic analysis, but can be taken into account using a reliability analysis. Reliability analyses, used to calculate probability of failure for tunnel support system, is a complement of the factor of safety calculated by using deterministic analyses. In this paper, Monte Carlo Simulation is used to calculate probability of failure for tunnel support system. This article shows that significant error may be introduced by accepting a distribution for the performance function, which is obligatory for methods like FOSM, FORM, PEM. It is concluded that in cases when the distribution for the performance factor is not fully known, Monte Carlo analysis may give better results.

 © 2016 MIM Research Group. All rights reserved.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17515/resm2016.44st0608tn                          Full Text


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LATEST News


27/12/2022 Reviewer Awards: The winners of 2022 reviewer awards of Research on Engineering Structures and Materials (RESM) are announced. More information can be found at Reviewer Awards section. 


23/12/2022 Best Paper Award: According to the Advisory Board decision, the paper authored by Nitin Kumar, Michele Barbato, Erika L. Rengifo-López and Fabio Matta entitled as “Capabilities and limitations of existing finite element simplified micro-modeling techniques for unreinforced masonry” is awarded the 2022 Best Paper Award of Research on Engineering Structures and Materials (RESM). 

23/12/2022 Most Cited Paper Award:  According to the Editorial Board evaluation, the paper authored by Aykut Elmas, Güliz Akyüz, Ayhan Bergal, Müberra Andaç and Ömer Andaç entitled as “Mathematical modelling of drug release" is awarded the 2022 Most Cited Paper Award of Research on Engineering Structures and Materials (RESM). 


13/04/2022 Fraudulent Emails Impersonating Our Journal: We noticed that some emails are sent to some people impersonating our journal staff as sender and requesting recipients to follow some links. Our journal and staff has nothing to do with these emails and please do not follow the given links. Senders seem to have malicious aims. The emails include a portion of some of our previous emails to the journal users and researchers. This is only to deceive the receiver and make them trust the email. Do not follow any links or perform suspicious actions specified in these emails. Please, check the sender info carefully. Even the sender address or name resembles the journal related words they are different, generally in an easily noticeable way.


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LATEST AWARDS


2022 Reviewer Awards:

Please, visit Reviewer Awards section for the winners of the 2022 RESM reviewer awards.


2022 Best Paper Award:

The paper authored by Nitin Kumar, Michele Barbato, Erika L. Rengifo-López and Fabio Matta entitled as “Capabilities and limitations of existing finite element simplified micro-modeling techniques for unreinforced masonry” is awarded the 


2022 Most Cited Paper Award:

The paper authored by Aykut Elmas, Güliz Akyüz, Ayhan Bergal, Müberra Andaç and Ömer Andaç entitled as “Mathematical modelling of drug release" is awarded the


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