Regional wind energy planning requires spatial screening methods that account for modelling uncertainty before candidate areas advance to detailed investigation. This study presents an uncertainty-aware Geographic Information Systems–Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis framework for onshore wind-energy siting within a Kayseri-centered regional analytical frame in Türkiye. Seven continuous criteria were standardized using an empirical logistic fuzzy approach and evaluated under Equal, CRITIC, and Entropy weighting schemes across permissive, balanced, and strict planning assumptions. A 1000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation was used to examine spatial uncertainty. Within the regional analytical frame, the suitable area decreased from approximately 21,003.5 km² under permissive assumptions to 4,946.7 km² under strict assumptions. Within the tested perturbation ranges, planning-threshold variation produced a larger mean spatial effect than weight variation. Probability and connectivity rules yielded 31 candidate areas covering approximately 324.0 km², and all candidates retained at least 3 km² of connected area after LULC-based physical screening. Within the balanced eligible domain, mapped turbine locations showed higher modelled suitability than general eligible background locations (AUC = 0.961), providing an external spatial-consistency diagnostic rather than a measure of predictive accuracy. The resulting candidate areas are intended for detailed investigation and require subsequent legal, ecological, wind-resource, cadastral, engineering, and grid-capacity assessment.
